 Outline of Analysis
| Northumberland County vs. Pennsylvania Comparative Trends Analysis: Gross Domestic Product Growth and Change, 2001-2021 Introduction  Northumberland County: 2021 GDP = $3,550,008K 2021 Percent of State = 0.42% Pennsylvania: 2021 GDP = $844,496,474K 2021 Percent of U.S. = 3.62% Nationally, GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is widely regarded as the foremost blue-chip barometer for tracking and calibrating the economic performance of the economy nationwide. Like its closely followed national counterpart, the GDP of Northumberland County is the most comprehensive measure of output of all goods and services produced by labor and property located within Northumberland County. It is a market valuation of the goods and services-both private and public-produced within a regional economy. Unlike the widely and frequently reported employment and job numbers that measure labor as one of the units of input into production, GDP is a valuation of the output. Also, while County Personal Income is representative of the "purchasing power" of those that reside within a county, think of Gross Domestic Product as representative of the "producing power" of that county. For a more detailed and technical explanation of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by County compiled by the Regional Product Branch of Bureau of Economic Analysis please refer to the A Primer on Local Area Gross Domestic Product Methodology article found on the BEA website. BEA: DefinitionGDP by county is the county counterpart of the Nation's gross domestic product (GDP), the Bureau's featured and most comprehensive measure of U.S. economic activity. GDP by county is derived as the sum of the GDP originating in all the industries in a county. The statistics of real GDP by county are prepared in chained (2012) dollars. Real GDP by county is an inflation-adjusted measure of each county's gross product that is based on national prices for the goods and services produced within that county. The statistics of real GDP by county and of quantity indexes with a base year of 2012 were derived by applying national chain-type price indexes to the current-dollar GDP-by-county values for the 64 detailed NAICS-based industries for 1997 forward. The chain-type index formula that is used in the national accounts is then used to calculate the values of total real GDP by county and of real GDP by county at more aggregated industry levels. Real GDP by county may reflect a substantial volume of output that is sold to other counties and regions. To the extent that a county's output is produced and sold in national markets at relatively uniform prices (or sold locally at national prices), real GDP by state captures the differences across states that reflect the relative differences in the mix of goods and services that the counties produce. However, real GDP by county does not capture geographic differences in the prices of goods and services that are produced and sold locally. United States. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Product Division. BEA: Relation of GDP by county to U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)An industry's GDP by county, or its value added, in practice, is calculated as the sum of incomes earned by labor and capital and the costs incurred in the production of goods and services. That is, it includes the wages and salaries that workers earn, the income earned by individual or joint entrepreneurs as well as by corporations, and business taxes such as sales, property, and Federal excise taxes that count as a business expense. GDP is calculated as the sum of what consumers, businesses, and government spend on final goods and services, plus investment and net foreign trade. In theory, incomes earned should equal what is spent, but due to different data sources, income earned, usually referred to as gross domestic income (GDI), does not always equal what is spent (GDP). The difference is referred to as the "statistical discrepancy." Starting with the 2004 comprehensive revision, BEA's annual industry accounts and its GDP-by-county accounts allocate the statistical discrepancy across all private-sector industries. Therefore, the GDP-by-county statistics are now conceptually more similar to the GDP statistics in the national accounts than they had been in the past. U.S. real GDP by county for the advance year, 2012, may differ from the Annual Industry Accounts' GDP by industry and, hence NIPA (National Income and Product Account) GDP, because of different sources and vintages of data used to estimate GDP by state and NIPA GDP. For the revised years of 2009-2011, U.S. GDP by county is nearly identical to GDP by industry except for small differences resulting from the GDP-by-county accounts' exclusion of overseas Federal military and civilian activity (because it cannot be attributed to a particular state). The GDP-by-industry statistics are identical to those from the 2012 annual revision of the NIPAs, released in July 2012. However, because of revisions since July 2012, GDP in the NIPAs may differ from U.S. GDP by county. United States. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Product Division. Northumberland County Gross Domestic Product, 2002-2021 Current vs. Chained 2012 Dollars (Millions)  Figure 1. Figure 1 depicts Northumberland County's annual gross domestic product over 2002-2021 in current and constant (chained 2012) dollars. Constant dollar measurements remove the effects of inflation. They allow for comparison of changes in the real total good and services output of Northumberland County over time. When measured in current dollars, Northumberland County's GDP increased 69.49%, from $2,095M in 2002 to $3,550M in 2021. When measured in constant 2012 dollars to adjust for inflation, it advanced 7.98%, from $2,677M in 2002 to $2,890M in 2021. Real Gross Domestic Product, 2001-2021 (Millions)  Figure 2. Figure 2 tracks Northumberland County's and Pennsylvania's annual real gross domestic product for the period 2001-2021 to illustrate real gross domestic product patterns over time. During this 21-year period, Northumberland County's real gross domestic product rose from $2,721M in 2001 to $2,890M in 2021, for a net gain of $170M, or 6.23%. In comparison, Pennsylvania's real GDP advanced from $547,261M in 2001 to $710,973M in 2021, for a net gain of $163,712M, or 29.91%. Real Gross Domestic Product Indices (2001=100): 2001-2021  Figure 3. Figure 3 portrays Northumberland County's real gross domestic product growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Pennsylvania, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's real gross domestic product in 2001 as a base figure of 100, and the real gross domestic products in later years as a percentage of the 2001 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in real gross domestic product growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. Northumberland County's overall real GDP growth was 6.23% over 2001-2021 trailed Pennsylvania's increase of 29.91%, and fell below the United States' increase of 47.85%. Gross Domestic Product as a Percent of the Pennsylvania Total: 2001-2021  Figure 4. Another interesting and insightful way of contrasting the gross domestic product growth of Northumberland County is to compare its individual percentage contributions to Pennsylvania's statewide gross domestic product over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's gross domestic product grew faster, or declined less, than Pennsylvania's gross domestic product, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 2001, Northumberland County's GDP totaled 0.49% of Pennsylvania's GDP, while in 2021 it totaled 0.42% thereby yielding a -0.07% share-shift.
Northumberland County Real Gross Domestic Product: Annual Percent Change, 2002-2021  Figure 5. Figure 5 shows the short-run pattern of Northumberland County's real gross domestic product growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 2002-2021. The average annual percent change for the entire 20-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, Northumberland County's real GDP grew at an annual rate of 0.37% over 2002-2021. The county posted its highest growth in 2019 (8.04%) and posted its lowest growth in 2008 (-6.75%). In 2021, Northumberland County's real GDP grew by 4.05% Northumberland County Real Gross Domestic Product: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 2002-2021  Figure 6. Figure 6 again shows the annual percent change in Northumberland County's real gross domestic product since 2002, but this time they are overlayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2021. During 2002-2009, Northumberland County's annual real GDP growth rate averaged -0.43%. It averaged 0.73% throughout the 2010s, 1.78% thus far this decade (2020-2021). Real Gross Domestic Product Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade  Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Northumberland County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Pennsylvania and the nation. As the chart reveals, Northumberland County's average annual real gross domestic product growth recorded under Pennsylvania's average throughout the 2000s (-0.43% vs. 1.39%), amounted to less than Pennsylvania's average throughout the 2010s (0.73% vs. 1.60%), and topped Pennsylvania's average over the 2 year period of the current decade, 2020-2021 (1.78% vs. -0.18%). Finally, relative to nationwide real gross domestic product growth trends, Northumberland County fell under the nation throughout the 2000s (-0.43% vs. 1.77%), trailed the nation over the 2010s (0.73% vs. 2.25%), and exceeded the nation over 2020-2021 (1.78% vs. 1.59%).
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