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 Outline of Analysis
| Montour County vs. Pennsylvania Comparative Trends Analysis: Per Capita Personal Income Growth and Change, 1969-2017 Introduction  Montour County: 2017 PCI = $54,960 2017 Percent of State = 103.1% Pennsylvania: 2017 PCI = $53,300 Per Capita Income (PCI) is one of the most widely used indicators for gauging the economic performance and changing fortunes of local economies. It is used as a yardstick to assess the economic well being of a region's residents and the quality of consumer markets. It serves as a barometer for calibrating the economic performance of a region over time and to judge differences in relative economic prosperity between regions. Shifting trends in local per capita income growth have important social and political ramifications and significant implications in formulating local economic development strategies and initiatives. Data Definition: Personal income is the income that is received by persons from all sources. It is calculated as the sum of wage and salary disbursements, supplements to wages and salaries, proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, personal dividend income, personal interest income, and personal current tranfer receipts, less contributions for government social insurance. This measure of income is calculated as the personal income of the residents of a given area divided by the resident population of the area. In computing per capita personal income, BEA uses the Census Bureau's annual midyear population estimates. Personal income is measured as a flow throughout the year, while the measurement of population is at one point in mid-year. Therefore, per capita income is distorted if a significant change in population occurs during the year. For smaller counties in particular, per capita income in any given year may be exceptionally high or low for the short run because of unusual local conditions, such as a bumper crop, a catastrophe, or a major construction project as the building of a dam or nuclear power plant. Farm incomes are notorious for being especially volatile year-to-year, owing to changing weather, commodity market conditions, and alterations in government programs. Therefore, the per capita income of farm-dependent counties may exhibit sharp fluctuations over time. The presence of large institutional populations--such as residents attending a local college or the residents of a local prison or state mental institution--can significantly lower the per capita income estimates of an area. Such results may not reflect the relative economic well being of the non-institutional population and may mislead if care is not given to their interpretation. Montour County Per Capita Personal Income, 1969-2017 Current vs. Constant Dollars  Figure 1. Figure 1 depicts Montour County's annual per capita personal income over 1969-2017 in current and constant (2012) dollars. Constant dollar measurements remove the effects of inflation. They allow for comparison of changes in the real purchasing power of Montour County over time. When measured in current dollars, Montour County's per capita personal income increased 1,595.2%, from $3,242 in 1969 to $54,960 in 2017. When measured in constant 2012 dollars to adjust for inflation, it advanced 219.9%, from $16,199 in 1969 to $51,813 in 2017. Real Per Capita Personal Income, 1969-2017  Figure 2. Figure 2 tracks Montour County's and Pennsylvania's annual real per capita personal income for the period 1969-2017 to illustrate real per capita personal income patterns over time. During this 49-year period, Montour County's real per capita personal income rose from $16,199 in 1969 to $51,813 in 2017, for a net gain of $35,614, or 219.9%. In comparison, Pennsylvania's real per capita personal income advanced from $19,304 in 1969 to $50,248 in 2017, for a net advance of $30,944, or 160.3%. Real Per Capita Personal Income Indices (1969=100): 1969-2017  Figure 3. Figure 3 portrays Montour County's real per capita personal income growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Pennsylvania, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's real per capita personal income in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the real per capita personal incomes in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in real per capita personal income growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. Montour County's overall real per capita personal income growth was 219.9% over 1969-2017 outpaced Pennsylvania's increase of 160.3%, and outpaced the United States' increase of 147.9%. Per Capita Personal Income as a Percent of the U.S. Average: 1969-2017  Figure 4. Figure 4 portrays the trends for per capita personal income relative to the national average by tracing Montour County and Pennsylvania per capita personal income as a percent of the national average over 1969-2017. In 1969, Montour County's per capita personal income amounted to 82.5% of the national average; in 2017, it approximated 106.4%. Similarly, in 1969, Pennsylvania's per capita personal income totaled 98.3% of the national average; in 2017, it consisted of 103.2%. Montour County Real Per Capita Personal Income: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2017  Figure 5. Figure 5 highlights the short-run pattern of Montour County's real per capita personal income growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2017. The average annual percent change for the entire 48-year period is also traced on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, Montour County's real per capita personal income grew at an annual rate of 2.49% over 1970-2017. The county posted its highest growth in 1973 (8.22%) and recorded its lowest growth in 1995 (-6.05%). In 2017, Montour County's real per capita personal income grew by 1.61% Montour County Real Per Capita Personal Income: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2017  Figure 6. Over the past four decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again traces the annual percent change in Montour County's real per capita personal income since 1970, but this time they are displayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and 2010-2017. During the 1970s, Montour County's annual real per capita personal income growth rate averaged 3.38%. It averaged 3.25% in the 1980s, 0.39% throughout the 1990s, 2.99% in the 2000s, and 2.40% thus far this decade (2010 to 2017). Real Per Capita Personal Income Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade  Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Montour County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Pennsylvania and the nation. As the chart reveals, Montour County's average annual real per capita personal income growth recorded above Pennsylvania's average in the 1970s (3.38% vs. 2.44%), exceeded Pennsylvania's average during the 1980s (3.25% vs. 2.25%), recorded under Pennsylvania's average throughout the 1990s (0.39% vs. 2.00%), outgained Pennsylvania's average in the 2000s (2.99% vs. 1.44%), and registered above Pennsylvania's average over the 8 year period of the last decade, 2010-2017 (2.40% vs. 1.99%). Finally, relative to nationwide real per capita personal income growth trends, Montour County led the nation over the 1970s (3.38% vs. 2.35%), outpaced the nation over the 1980s (3.25% vs. 2.21%), trailed the nation throughout the 1990s (0.39% vs. 2.02%), registered above the nation throughout the 2000s (2.99% vs. 1.10%), and registered above the nation over 2010-2017 (2.40% vs. 1.95%).
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