Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy.

The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of Erie County with comparisons to Pennsylvania and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing Erie County vs. Pennsylvania's population growth over 1969-2020. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce.

Figure 1 traces Erie County's annual population for the period 1969-2020 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 52-year period, Erie County's population rose from 262,384 in 1969 to 268,426 in 2020, for a net gain of 6,042, or 2.3%.

NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities.

Figure 2 traces Pennsylvania's annual population for the period 1969-2020 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 52-year period, Pennsylvania's population rose from 11,741,000 in 1969 to 12,783,254 in 2020, for a net gain of 1,042,254, or 8.9%.

NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities.

Figure 3 shows Erie County's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Pennsylvania, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size.

Erie County's overall population growth was 2.3% over 1969-2020 trailed Pennsylvania's increase of 8.9%, and fell below the United States' increase of 63.7%.

Another interesting and insightful way of highlighting the population growth of Erie County is to compare its individual percentage contributions to Pennsylvania's statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than Pennsylvania's population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly.

In 1969, Erie County's population totaled 2.2% of Pennsylvania's population, while in 2020 it equated to 2.1% thereby yielding a -0.1% share-shift.

Figure 5 shows the short-run pattern of Erie County's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2020. The average annual percent change for the entire 51-year period is also traced on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average.

On average, Erie County's population grew at an annual rate of 0.05% over 1970-2020. The county posted its highest growth in 1971 (1.63%) and recorded its lowest growth in 1985 (-1.19%). In 2020, Erie County's population declined by -0.41%

Over the past five decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again illustrates the annual percent change in Erie County's population since 1970, but this time they are overlayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and 2020.

During the 1970s, Erie County's annual population growth rate averaged 0.61%. It averaged -0.12% during the 1980s, 0.21% during the 1990s, -0.05% during the 2000s, -0.37% during the 2010s, and -0.41% in 2020.

Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Erie County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Pennsylvania and the nation. As the chart reveals, Erie County's average annual population growth recorded above Pennsylvania's average in the 1970s (0.61% vs. 0.11%), trailed Pennsylvania's average in the 1980s (-0.12% vs. -0.01%), amounted to less than Pennsylvania's average in the 1990s (0.21% vs. 0.33%), fell below Pennsylvania's average during the 2000s (-0.05% vs. 0.32%), and fell below Pennsylvania's average over the 10 year period of the last decade, 2010-2019 (-0.37% vs. 0.10%). In 2020, Erie County's growth has lagged Pennsylvania's average (-0.41% vs. -0.12%).

Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, Erie County posted below the nation in the 1970s (0.61% vs. 1.10%), lagged the nation in the 1980s (-0.12% vs. 0.95%), fell under the nation during the 1990s (0.21% vs. 1.23%), lagged the nation in the 2000s (-0.05% vs. 0.95%), and posted below the nation over 2010-2019 (-0.37% vs. 0.68%). In 2020, growth for Erie County has recorded under the national average (-0.41% vs. 0.35%).