Erie County vs. Pennsylvania
Comparative Trends Analysis:
Population Growth and Change, 1969-2017
Introduction
Erie County:
2017 Population = 274,541
2017 Percent of State = 2.1%
Pennsylvania:
2017 Population = 12,805,537
2017 Percent of State = 3.9%
Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy.
The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of Erie County with comparisons to Pennsylvania and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing Erie County vs. Pennsylvania's population growth over 1969-2017. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce.
Population, 1969-2017
Population, 1969-2017
Figure 1.
Figure 1 traces Erie County's annual population for the period 1969-2017 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 49-year period, Erie County's population rose from 262,384 in 1969 to 274,541 in 2017, for a net gain of 12,157, or 4.6%.
NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities.
Population, 1969-2017
Population, 1969-2017
Figure 2.
Figure 2 traces Pennsylvania's annual population for the period 1969-2017 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 49-year period, Pennsylvania's population rose from 11,741,000 in 1969 to 12,805,537 in 2017, for a net gain of 1,064,537, or 9.1%.
NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities.
Population Indices (1969=100): 1969-2017
Population Indices (1969=100): 1969-2017
Figure 3.
Figure 3 portrays Erie County's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Pennsylvania, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size.
Erie County's overall population growth was 4.6% over 1969-2017 trailed Pennsylvania's increase of 9.1%, and fell below the United States' increase of 61.8%.
Population as a Percent of the Pennsylvania Total: 1969-2017
Population as a Percent of the Pennsylvania Total: 1969-2017
Figure 4.
Another interesting and insightful way of highlighting the population growth of Erie County is to trace its individual percentage contributions to Pennsylvania's statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster�or declined less�than Pennsylvania's population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly.
In 1969, Erie County's population totaled 2.2% of Pennsylvania's population, while in 2017 it equated to 2.1% thereby yielding a -0.1% share-shift.
   
 
Population Share-Shift
2017 vs. 1969
 
Share-
Shift*
 
2017
vs.
1969
-0.09%
=
2.14%
-
2.23%
 
   
Erie County Population:
Annual Percent Change, 1970-2017
Erie County Population:
Annual Percent Change, 1970-2017
Figure 5.
Figure 5 highlights the short-run pattern of Erie County's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2017. The average annual percent change for the entire 48-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average.
On average, Erie County's population grew at an annual rate of 0.10% over 1970-2017. The county recorded its highest growth in 1971 (1.63%) and posted its lowest growth in 1985 (-1.19%). In 2017, Erie County's population declined by -0.64%
Erie County Population:
Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2017
Erie County Population:
Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2017
Figure 6.
Over the past four decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again depicts the annual percent change in Erie County's population since 1970, but this time they are displayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and 2010-2017.
During the 1970s, Erie County's annual population growth rate averaged 0.61%. It averaged -0.12% throughout the 1980s, 0.21% throughout the 1990s, -0.05% during the 2000s, and -0.24% thus far this decade (2010 to 2017).
Population Growth:
Average Annual Percent Change by Decade
Population Growth:
Average Annual Percent Change by Decade
Figure 7.
Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Erie County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Pennsylvania and the nation. As the chart reveals, Erie County's average annual population growth outgained Pennsylvania's average during the 1970s (0.61% vs. 0.11%), recorded under Pennsylvania's average in the 1980s (-0.12% vs. -0.01%), recorded under Pennsylvania's average throughout the 1990s (0.21% vs. 0.33%), trailed Pennsylvania's average in the 2000s (-0.05% vs. 0.32%), and amounted to less than Pennsylvania's average over the 8 year period of the last decade, 2010-2017 (-0.24% vs. 0.14%).
Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, Erie County fell below the nation during the 1970s (0.61% vs. 1.10%), fell below the nation in the 1980s (-0.12% vs. 0.95%), recorded underneath the nation in the 1990s (0.21% vs. 1.23%), fell under the nation throughout the 2000s (-0.05% vs. 0.95%), and fell under the nation over 2010-2017 (-0.24% vs. 0.75%).
   
 
Population Growth:
Average Annual Percent Change
 
 
 
0.10
0.61
-0.12
0.21
-0.05
-0.24
-0.64
 
0.18
0.11
-0.01
0.33
0.32
0.14
0.14
 
1.01
1.10
0.95
1.23
0.95
0.75
0.72
 
   

Tip: To augment your analysis click on the column headers in the following table to rank and/or sort the data.

   
 
Erie County:
Population, 1969-2017
 
1969
 
262,384
100.0
N
2.23
1970
 
264,315
100.7
0.74
2.24
1971
 
268,634
102.4
1.63
2.26
1972
 
272,384
103.8
1.40
2.29
1973
 
274,509
104.6
0.78
2.31
1974
 
275,306
104.9
0.29
2.32
1975
 
279,275
106.4
1.44
2.35
1976
 
281,390
107.2
0.76
2.37
1977
 
280,019
106.7
-0.49
2.36
1978
 
278,420
106.1
-0.57
2.35
1979
 
278,792
106.3
0.13
2.35
1980
 
280,043
106.7
0.45
2.36
1981
 
280,529
106.9
0.17
2.37
1982
 
281,320
107.2
0.28
2.37
1983
 
281,683
107.4
0.13
2.38
1984
 
280,928
107.1
-0.27
2.38
1985
 
277,584
105.8
-1.19
2.36
1986
 
277,123
105.6
-0.17
2.35
1987
 
275,759
105.1
-0.49
2.33
1988
 
274,732
104.7
-0.37
2.32
1989
 
275,474
105.0
0.27
2.32
1990
 
275,911
105.2
0.16
2.32
1991
 
277,973
105.9
0.75
2.32
1992
 
279,548
106.5
0.57
2.32
1993
 
280,796
107.0
0.45
2.32
1994
 
281,649
107.3
0.30
2.32
1995
 
282,127
107.5
0.17
2.31
1996
 
282,582
107.7
0.16
2.31
1997
 
282,609
107.7
0.01
2.31
1998
 
281,764
107.4
-0.30
2.30
1999
 
281,294
107.2
-0.17
2.29
2000
 
280,803
107.0
-0.17
2.29
2001
 
280,647
107.0
-0.06
2.28
2002
 
280,379
106.9
-0.10
2.27
2003
 
280,153
106.8
-0.08
2.26
2004
 
277,864
105.9
-0.82
2.24
2005
 
277,211
105.7
-0.24
2.23
2006
 
278,389
106.1
0.42
2.23
2007
 
278,573
106.2
0.07
2.22
2008
 
278,686
106.2
0.04
2.21
2009
 
279,838
106.7
0.41
2.21
2010
 
280,775
107.0
0.33
2.21
2011
 
281,288
107.2
0.18
2.21
2012
 
281,503
107.3
0.08
2.20
2013
 
280,647
107.0
-0.30
2.20
2014
 
279,351
106.5
-0.46
2.18
2015
 
278,111
106.0
-0.44
2.17
2016
 
276,321
105.3
-0.64
2.16
2017
 
274,541
104.6
-0.64
2.14
Source: Calculations by the Pennsylvania Regional Economic Analysis Project (PA-REAP)
with data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
November 2018
REAP_PI_CA1400_100_PSN
 
   

Tip: To augment your analysis click on the column headers in the following table to rank and/or sort the data.

   
 
Pennsylvania:
Population, 1969-2017
 
1969
 
11,741,000
100.0
N
5.83
1970
 
11,811,561
100.6
0.60
5.80
1971
 
11,884,354
101.2
0.62
5.75
1972
 
11,904,541
101.4
0.17
5.69
1973
 
11,885,202
101.2
-0.16
5.62
1974
 
11,863,936
101.0
-0.18
5.56
1975
 
11,897,778
101.3
0.29
5.52
1976
 
11,887,478
101.2
-0.09
5.46
1977
 
11,881,857
101.2
-0.05
5.41
1978
 
11,864,774
101.1
-0.14
5.34
1979
 
11,873,563
101.1
0.07
5.29
1980
 
11,868,305
101.1
-0.04
5.22
1981
 
11,858,569
101.0
-0.08
5.17
1982
 
11,845,146
100.9
-0.11
5.11
1983
 
11,837,726
100.8
-0.06
5.06
1984
 
11,815,175
100.6
-0.19
5.01
1985
 
11,770,865
100.3
-0.38
4.95
1986
 
11,782,754
100.4
0.10
4.91
1987
 
11,810,869
100.6
0.24
4.87
1988
 
11,845,755
100.9
0.30
4.84
1989
 
11,865,992
101.1
0.17
4.81
1990
 
11,903,299
101.4
0.31
4.77
1991
 
11,982,164
102.1
0.66
4.74
1992
 
12,049,450
102.6
0.56
4.70
1993
 
12,119,724
103.2
0.58
4.66
1994
 
12,166,050
103.6
0.38
4.62
1995
 
12,198,403
103.9
0.27
4.58
1996
 
12,220,464
104.1
0.18
4.54
1997
 
12,227,814
104.1
0.06
4.48
1998
 
12,245,672
104.3
0.15
4.44
1999
 
12,263,805
104.5
0.15
4.39
2000
 
12,284,173
104.6
0.17
4.35
2001
 
12,298,970
104.8
0.12
4.32
2002
 
12,331,031
105.0
0.26
4.29
2003
 
12,374,658
105.4
0.35
4.27
2004
 
12,410,722
105.7
0.29
4.24
2005
 
12,449,990
106.0
0.32
4.21
2006
 
12,510,809
106.6
0.49
4.19
2007
 
12,563,937
107.0
0.42
4.17
2008
 
12,612,285
107.4
0.38
4.15
2009
 
12,666,858
107.9
0.43
4.13
2010
 
12,711,063
108.3
0.35
4.11
2011
 
12,742,811
108.5
0.25
4.09
2012
 
12,768,034
108.7
0.20
4.07
2013
 
12,778,450
108.8
0.08
4.04
2014
 
12,790,341
108.9
0.09
4.01
2015
 
12,791,124
108.9
0.01
3.98
2016
 
12,787,085
108.9
-0.03
3.95
2017
 
12,805,537
109.1
0.14
3.93
Source: Calculations by the Pennsylvania Regional Economic Analysis Project (PA-REAP)
with data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
November 2018
REAP_PI_CA1400_100_PSN
 
   

Tip: To augment your analysis click on the column headers in the following table to rank and/or sort the data.

   
 
United States:
Population, 1969-2017
 
1969
 
201,298,000
100.0
N
1970
 
203,798,722
101.2
1.24
1971
 
206,817,509
102.7
1.48
1972
 
209,274,882
104.0
1.19
1973
 
211,349,205
105.0
0.99
1974
 
213,333,635
106.0
0.94
1975
 
215,456,585
107.0
1.00
1976
 
217,553,859
108.1
0.97
1977
 
219,760,875
109.2
1.01
1978
 
222,098,244
110.3
1.06
1979
 
224,568,579
111.6
1.11
1980
 
227,224,719
112.9
1.18
1981
 
229,465,744
114.0
0.99
1982
 
231,664,432
115.1
0.96
1983
 
233,792,014
116.1
0.92
1984
 
235,824,907
117.2
0.87
1985
 
237,923,734
118.2
0.89
1986
 
240,132,831
119.3
0.93
1987
 
242,288,936
120.4
0.90
1988
 
244,499,004
121.5
0.91
1989
 
246,819,222
122.6
0.95
1990
 
249,622,814
124.0
1.14
1991
 
252,980,941
125.7
1.35
1992
 
256,514,224
127.4
1.40
1993
 
259,918,588
129.1
1.33
1994
 
263,125,821
130.7
1.23
1995
 
266,278,393
132.3
1.20
1996
 
269,394,284
133.8
1.17
1997
 
272,646,925
135.4
1.21
1998
 
275,854,104
137.0
1.18
1999
 
279,040,168
138.6
1.15
2000
 
282,162,411
140.2
1.12
2001
 
284,968,955
141.6
0.99
2002
 
287,625,193
142.9
0.93
2003
 
290,107,933
144.1
0.86
2004
 
292,805,298
145.5
0.93
2005
 
295,516,599
146.8
0.93
2006
 
298,379,912
148.2
0.97
2007
 
301,231,207
149.6
0.96
2008
 
304,093,966
151.1
0.95
2009
 
306,771,529
152.4
0.88
2010
 
309,338,421
153.7
0.84
2011
 
311,644,280
154.8
0.75
2012
 
313,993,272
156.0
0.75
2013
 
316,234,505
157.1
0.71
2014
 
318,622,525
158.3
0.76
2015
 
321,039,839
159.5
0.76
2016
 
323,405,935
160.7
0.74
2017
 
325,719,178
161.8
0.72
Source: Calculations by the Pennsylvania Regional Economic Analysis Project (PA-REAP)
with data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
November 2018
REAP_PI_CA1400_100_PN
 
   
Copyright © 2018. Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Analysis Project (PNREAP). All Rights Reserved.

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