Somerset County vs. Pennsylvania Comparative Trends Analysis: Population Growth and Change, 1969-2022 Introduction Somerset County: 2022 Population = 72,710 2022 Percent of State = 0.56% Pennsylvania: 2022 Population = 12,972,008 2022 Percent of U.S. = 3.89% Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy. The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of Somerset County with comparisons to Pennsylvania and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing Somerset County vs. Pennsylvania's population growth over 1969-2022. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 1. Figure 1 tracks Somerset County's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Somerset County's population dropped from 76,151 in 1969 to 72,710 in 2022, for a net loss of -3,441, or -4.52%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 traces Pennsylvania's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Pennsylvania's population rose from 11,741,000 in 1969 to 12,972,008 in 2022, for a net gain of 1,231,008, or 10.48%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population Indices (1969=100): 1969-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 shows Somerset County's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Pennsylvania, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. Somerset County's overall population growth was -4.52% over 1969-2022 trailed Pennsylvania's increase of 10.48%, and fell below the United States' increase of 65.57%. Population as a Percent of the Pennsylvania Total: 1969-2022 Figure 4. Another interesting and insightful way of contrasting the population growth of Somerset County is to compare its individual percentage contributions to Pennsylvania's statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than Pennsylvania's population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 1969, Somerset County's population comprised 0.65% of Pennsylvania's population, while in 2022 it comprised 0.56% thereby yielding a -0.09% share-shift.
Somerset County Population: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 shows the short-run pattern of Somerset County's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also traced on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, Somerset County's population contracted at an annual rate of -0.09% over 1970-2022. The county recorded its highest growth in 1972 (1.76%) and posted its lowest growth in 2021 (-1.37%). In 2022, Somerset County's population declined by -0.40% Somerset County Population: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again shows the annual percent change in Somerset County's population since 1970, but this time they are overlayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1970s, Somerset County's annual population growth rate averaged 0.62%. It averaged -0.32% during the 1980s, 0.22% during the 1990s, -0.27% in the 2000s, -0.48% during the 2010s, -0.76% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Population Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Somerset County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Pennsylvania and the nation. As the chart reveals, Somerset County's average annual population growth surpassed Pennsylvania's average throughout the 1970s (0.62% vs. 0.11%), posted below Pennsylvania's average throughout the 1980s (-0.32% vs. -0.01%), trailed Pennsylvania's average during the 1990s (0.22% vs. 0.33%), amounted to less than Pennsylvania's average throughout the 2000s (-0.27% vs. 0.32%), recorded under Pennsylvania's average during the 2010s (-0.48% vs. 0.25%), and trailed Pennsylvania's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (-0.76% vs. -0.05%). Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, Somerset County trailed the nation in the 1970s (0.62% vs. 1.10%), fell under the nation in the 1980s (-0.32% vs. 0.95%), fell below the nation throughout the 1990s (0.22% vs. 1.23%), trailed the nation during the 2000s (-0.27% vs. 0.95%), posted below the nation over the 2010s (-0.48% vs. 0.74%), and lagged the nation over 2020-2022 (-0.76% vs. 0.31%).
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