Centre County vs. Pennsylvania
Comparative Trends Analysis:
Total Employment Growth and Change, 1969-2018
Introduction
Centre County:
2018 Jobs = 118,052
2018 Percent of State = 1.5%
Pennsylvania:
2018 Jobs = 7,798,395
2018 Percent of State = 3.9%
Employment numbers remain the most popular and frequently cited statistics used for tracking local area economic conditions and trends. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) employment estimates reported measure the number of full- and part-time wage and salary employees, plus the number of proprietors of unincorporated businesses. People holding more than one job are counted in the employment estimates for each job they hold. This means BEA employment estimates represent a job count, not a people count. Also, BEA employment is by place-of-work, rather than by place-of-residence. Jobs held by neighboring county residents who commute to Centre County to work are included in the employment count for Centre County.
Data Definition:
The BEA employment series for states and local areas comprises estimates of the number of jobs, full-time plus part-time, by place of work. Full-time and part-time jobs are counted at equal weight. Employees, sole proprietors, and active partners are included, but unpaid family workers and volunteers are not included. Proprietors employment consists of the number of sole proprietorships and the number of partners in partnerships. The description "by place of work" applies to the wage and salary portion of the series and, with relatively little error, to the entire series. The proprietors employment portion of the series, however, is more nearly by place of residence because, for nonfarm sole proprietorships, the estimates are based on IRS tax data that reflect the address from which the proprietor's individual tax return is filed, which is usually the proprietor's residence. The nonfarm partnership portion of the proprietors employment series reflects the tax-filing address of the partnership, which may be either the residence of one of the partners or the business address of the partnership. The employment estimates are designed to be consistent with the estimates of wages and salaries and proprietors' income that are part of the personal income series. The employment estimates are based on the same sets of source data as the corresponding earnings estimates and are prepared with parallel methodologies. Two forms of proprietors' income-the income of limited partnerships and the income of tax-exempt cooperatives-have no corresponding employment estimates.
Total Employment, 1969-2018
Total Employment, 1969-2018
Figure 1.
Figure 1 tracks Centre County's annual total employment for the period 1969-2018 to illustrate total employment patterns over time. During this 50-year period, Centre County's total employment rose from 39,598 in 1969 to 118,052 in 2018, for a net gain of 78,454, or 198.1%.
Total Employment, 1969-2018
Total Employment, 1969-2018
Figure 2.
Figure 2 traces Pennsylvania's annual total employment for the period 1969-2018 to illustrate total employment patterns over time. During this 50-year period, Pennsylvania's total employment rose from 5,249,940 in 1969 to 7,798,395 in 2018, for a net gain of 2,548,455, or 48.5%.
Total Employment Indices (1969=100): 1969-2018
Total Employment Indices (1969=100): 1969-2018
Figure 3.
Figure 3 portrays Centre County's total employment growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Pennsylvania, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's total employment in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the total employments in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in total employment growth between regions that may differ vastly in size.
Centre County's overall total employment growth was 198.1% over 1969-2018 outpaced Pennsylvania's increase of 48.5%, and topped the United States' increase of 120.5%.
Total Employment as a Percent of the Pennsylvania Total: 1969-2018
Total Employment as a Percent of the Pennsylvania Total: 1969-2018
Figure 4.
Another interesting and insightful way of contrasting the total employment growth of Centre County is to trace its individual percentage contributions to Pennsylvania's statewide total employment over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's total employment grew faster, or declined less, than Pennsylvania's total employment, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly.
In 1969, Centre County's total employment comprised 0.75% of Pennsylvania's total employment, while in 2018 it comprised 1.51% thereby yielding a +0.76% share-shift.
   
 
Total Employment Share-Shift
2018 vs. 1969
 
Share-
Shift*
 
2018
vs.
1969
+0.76%
=
1.51%
-
0.75%
 
   
Centre County Total Employment:
Annual Percent Change, 1970-2018
Centre County Total Employment:
Annual Percent Change, 1970-2018
Figure 5.
Figure 5 shows the short-run pattern of Centre County's total employment growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2018. The average annual percent change for the entire 49-year period is also traced on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average.
On average, Centre County's total employment grew at an annual rate of 2.27% over 1970-2018. The county recorded its highest growth in 1973 (5.84%) and posted its lowest growth in 1981 (-1.27%). In 2018, Centre County's total employment declined by -0.89%
Centre County Total Employment:
Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2018
Centre County Total Employment:
Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2018
Figure 6.
Over the past five decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again depicts the annual percent change in Centre County's total employment since 1970, but this time they are overlayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and 2010-2018.
During the 1970s, Centre County's annual total employment growth rate averaged 3.38%. It averaged 2.71% in the 1980s, 2.63% during the 1990s, 1.58% throughout the 2000s, and 0.90% thus far this decade (2010 to 2018).
Total Employment Growth:
Average Annual Percent Change by Decade
Total Employment Growth:
Average Annual Percent Change by Decade
Figure 7.
Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Centre County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Pennsylvania and the nation. As the chart reveals, Centre County's average annual total employment growth exceeded Pennsylvania's average throughout the 1970s (3.38% vs. 0.77%), outgained Pennsylvania's average during the 1980s (2.71% vs. 0.95%), exceeded Pennsylvania's average throughout the 1990s (2.63% vs. 0.85%), outgained Pennsylvania's average throughout the 2000s (1.58% vs. 0.50%), and lagged Pennsylvania's average over the 9 year period of the last decade, 2010-2018 (0.90% vs. 1.05%).
Finally, relative to nationwide total employment growth trends, Centre County outpaced the nation in the 1970s (3.38% vs. 2.21%), surpassed the nation during the 1980s (2.71% vs. 1.88%), registered above the nation over the 1990s (2.63% vs. 1.73%), outgained the nation in the 2000s (1.58% vs. 0.74%), and lagged the nation over 2010-2018 (0.90% vs. 1.63%).
   
 
Total Employment Growth:
Average Annual Percent Change
 
 
 
2.27
3.38
2.71
2.63
1.58
0.90
-0.89
 
0.82
0.77
0.95
0.85
0.50
1.05
1.58
 
1.64
2.21
1.88
1.73
0.74
1.63
1.99
 
   
Job Ratios (Employment/Population): 1969-2018
Job Ratios (Employment/Population): 1969-2018
Figure 8.
The job ratios shown in Figure 8 for Centre County, Pennsylvania and the nation not only portray a number of important trends, they also serves as a thumbnail guide to evaluating an economy's capacity to generate enough jobs fast enough to absorb the increasing number of workers attendant to a growing population. The job ratio is the number of full-time and part-time jobs by place of work, divided by population.
Nationally, the job ratio rose from 0.45 to 0.61 between 1969 and 2018. Centre County's job ratio registered 0.41 in 1969, and 0.73 in 2018. Underlying the rising job ratio over the past several decades have been the increases in the labor force participation rates, with the number and proportion of women in the labor market playing a leading role.
An assortment of other factors can contribute to regional differences in the job ratio. They include differences in the proportion of elderly and retirees who no longer work and participate in the labor force, differences in the number and proportion of part-time vs. full-time workers, differences in industry composition, and differences in age and sex distribution and degree of urbanization. Also, a disproportionate number of workers commuting to work outside a county tends to lower its local county job ratio, while a net inflow of workers commuting to work inside the county tends to augment its local county job ratio.
Avoid interpreting the job ratio as the fraction (or percent) of the local population employed. This interpretation should only apply to the "employment-population ratio" statistic compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) from the Current Population Survey (CPS).
Job Ratios (Employment/Population)
as a Percent of the U.S. Average:
1969-2018
Job Ratios (Employment/Population)
as a Percent of the U.S. Average:
1969-2018
Figure 9.
To highlight trends in a local job ratio relative to nationwide trends, Figure 9 tracks Centre County's, Pennsylvania's job ratio as a percent of the national job ratio over 1969-2018.

Tip: To augment your analysis click on the column headers in the following table to rank and/or sort the data.

   
 
Centre County:
Total Employment, 1969-2018
 
1969
 
39,598
100.0
N
0.75
0.41
90.17
1970
 
40,640
102.6
2.63
0.78
0.41
91.20
1971
 
41,670
105.2
2.53
0.81
0.41
92.93
1972
 
43,904
110.9
5.36
0.84
0.42
93.70
1973
 
46,470
117.4
5.84
0.86
0.44
95.00
1974
 
47,629
120.3
2.49
0.88
0.44
94.01
1975
 
47,752
120.6
0.26
0.90
0.44
96.74
1976
 
50,025
126.3
4.76
0.93
0.45
97.35
1977
 
51,750
130.7
3.45
0.95
0.46
95.86
1978
 
53,267
134.5
2.93
0.96
0.48
96.89
1979
 
55,133
139.2
3.50
0.97
0.49
97.30
1980
 
56,510
142.7
2.50
1.00
0.50
99.58
1981
 
55,794
140.9
-1.27
1.00
0.49
97.40
1982
 
55,674
140.6
-0.22
1.02
0.49
98.49
1983
 
56,956
143.8
2.30
1.05
0.49
99.09
1984
 
59,461
150.2
4.40
1.07
0.52
100.82
1985
 
60,583
153.0
1.89
1.07
0.52
99.89
1986
 
63,132
159.4
4.21
1.09
0.54
102.04
1987
 
66,110
167.0
4.72
1.11
0.55
103.49
1988
 
68,862
173.9
4.16
1.13
0.57
104.64
1989
 
71,931
181.7
4.46
1.16
0.59
106.82
1990
 
74,221
187.4
3.18
1.18
0.59
106.95
1991
 
75,902
191.7
2.26
1.22
0.60
110.29
1992
 
76,642
193.6
0.97
1.23
0.60
111.27
1993
 
78,826
199.1
2.85
1.26
0.61
112.01
1994
 
80,708
203.8
2.39
1.28
0.62
112.55
1995
 
84,000
212.1
4.08
1.31
0.64
114.60
1996
 
85,877
216.9
2.23
1.33
0.64
114.21
1997
 
87,914
222.0
2.37
1.34
0.65
115.02
1998
 
90,593
228.8
3.05
1.36
0.67
117.10
1999
 
93,184
235.3
2.86
1.38
0.69
118.96
2000
 
95,959
242.3
2.98
1.39
0.71
120.42
2001
 
97,495
246.2
1.60
1.41
0.71
121.97
2002
 
100,705
254.3
3.29
1.46
0.72
124.59
2003
 
100,925
254.9
0.22
1.47
0.71
123.47
2004
 
103,041
260.2
2.10
1.48
0.71
123.89
2005
 
104,606
264.2
1.52
1.48
0.72
123.24
2006
 
106,074
267.9
1.40
1.48
0.71
121.00
2007
 
107,699
272.0
1.53
1.48
0.72
120.87
2008
 
108,962
275.2
1.17
1.50
0.72
121.92
2009
 
108,969
275.2
0.01
1.53
0.71
125.79
2010
 
108,939
275.1
-0.03
1.53
0.71
126.38
2011
 
111,163
280.7
2.04
1.54
0.72
126.86
2012
 
111,266
281.0
0.09
1.53
0.71
125.23
2013
 
113,149
285.7
1.69
1.54
0.72
123.96
2014
 
114,275
288.6
1.00
1.54
0.72
122.37
2015
 
115,449
291.6
1.03
1.54
0.72
121.27
2016
 
117,504
296.7
1.78
1.55
0.73
121.14
2017
 
119,115
300.8
1.37
1.55
0.73
121.28
2018
 
118,052
298.1
-0.89
1.51
0.73
118.18
Source: Calculations by the Pennsylvania Regional Economic Analysis Project (PA-REAP)
with data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
November 2019
REAP_PI_CA1400_1000_PSN
 
   

Tip: To augment your analysis click on the column headers in the following table to rank and/or sort the data.

   
 
Pennsylvania:
Total Employment, 1969-2018
 
1969
 
5,249,940
100.0
N
5.77
0.45
98.85
1970
 
5,226,036
99.5
-0.46
5.73
0.44
98.79
1971
 
5,159,316
98.3
-1.28
5.63
0.43
98.04
1972
 
5,246,647
99.9
1.69
5.56
0.44
97.80
1973
 
5,401,982
102.9
2.96
5.49
0.45
97.60
1974
 
5,419,058
103.2
0.32
5.41
0.46
97.34
1975
 
5,302,386
101.0
-2.15
5.36
0.45
97.09
1976
 
5,353,339
102.0
0.96
5.27
0.45
96.44
1977
 
5,429,193
103.4
1.42
5.17
0.46
95.60
1978
 
5,561,889
105.9
2.44
5.07
0.47
94.92
1979
 
5,663,533
107.9
1.83
5.01
0.48
94.67
1980
 
5,624,462
107.1
-0.69
4.93
0.47
94.47
1981
 
5,583,974
106.4
-0.72
4.86
0.47
94.03
1982
 
5,473,792
104.3
-1.97
4.79
0.46
93.77
1983
 
5,432,690
103.5
-0.75
4.70
0.46
92.78
1984
 
5,577,004
106.2
2.66
4.63
0.47
92.36
1985
 
5,679,261
108.2
1.83
4.59
0.48
92.73
1986
 
5,772,102
109.9
1.63
4.57
0.49
93.19
1987
 
5,956,959
113.5
3.20
4.60
0.50
94.33
1988
 
6,119,812
116.6
2.73
4.58
0.52
94.57
1989
 
6,216,055
118.4
1.57
4.56
0.52
94.95
1990
 
6,292,542
119.9
1.23
4.55
0.53
95.39
1991
 
6,211,669
118.3
-1.29
4.51
0.52
95.30
1992
 
6,216,278
118.4
0.07
4.50
0.52
95.78
1993
 
6,256,367
119.2
0.64
4.44
0.52
95.31
1994
 
6,323,071
120.4
1.07
4.39
0.52
94.84
1995
 
6,422,943
122.3
1.58
4.34
0.53
94.79
1996
 
6,477,294
123.4
0.85
4.29
0.53
94.53
1997
 
6,584,830
125.4
1.66
4.26
0.54
95.01
1998
 
6,657,699
126.8
1.11
4.20
0.54
94.63
1999
 
6,764,360
128.8
1.60
4.19
0.55
95.28
2000
 
6,905,286
131.5
2.08
4.18
0.56
95.91
2001
 
6,915,464
131.7
0.15
4.18
0.56
96.80
2002
 
6,887,155
131.2
-0.41
4.17
0.56
97.30
2003
 
6,875,863
131.0
-0.16
4.14
0.56
97.15
2004
 
6,951,840
132.4
1.10
4.12
0.56
97.14
2005
 
7,053,674
134.4
1.46
4.09
0.57
97.15
2006
 
7,152,678
136.2
1.40
4.07
0.57
97.00
2007
 
7,265,045
138.4
1.57
4.05
0.58
97.02
2008
 
7,278,608
138.6
0.19
4.06
0.58
97.92
2009
 
7,101,557
135.3
-2.43
4.09
0.56
99.05
2010
 
7,119,776
135.6
0.26
4.12
0.56
100.21
2011
 
7,217,098
137.5
1.37
4.10
0.57
100.20
2012
 
7,284,519
138.8
0.93
4.07
0.57
100.06
2013
 
7,350,854
140.0
0.91
4.03
0.58
99.73
2014
 
7,434,313
141.6
1.14
3.99
0.58
99.38
2015
 
7,510,216
143.1
1.02
3.95
0.59
98.99
2016
 
7,593,573
144.6
1.11
3.93
0.59
99.24
2017
 
7,677,266
146.2
1.10
3.90
0.60
99.16
2018
 
7,798,395
148.5
1.58
3.88
0.61
99.24
Source: Calculations by the Pennsylvania Regional Economic Analysis Project (PA-REAP)
with data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
November 2019
REAP_PI_CA1400_1000_PSN
 
   

Tip: To augment your analysis click on the column headers in the following table to rank and/or sort the data.

   
 
United States:
Total Employment, 1969-2018
 
1969
 
91,053,200
100.0
N
0.45
1970
 
91,277,600
100.2
0.25
0.45
1971
 
91,581,400
100.6
0.33
0.44
1972
 
94,312,200
103.6
2.98
0.45
1973
 
98,427,500
108.1
4.36
0.47
1974
 
100,111,800
109.9
1.71
0.47
1975
 
98,900,600
108.6
-1.21
0.46
1976
 
101,591,200
111.6
2.72
0.47
1977
 
105,042,200
115.4
3.40
0.48
1978
 
109,686,600
120.5
4.42
0.49
1979
 
113,147,100
124.3
3.15
0.50
1980
 
113,983,200
125.2
0.74
0.50
1981
 
114,914,000
126.2
0.82
0.50
1982
 
114,163,300
125.4
-0.65
0.49
1983
 
115,645,700
127.0
1.30
0.49
1984
 
120,528,100
132.4
4.22
0.51
1985
 
123,796,700
136.0
2.71
0.52
1986
 
126,232,300
138.6
1.97
0.53
1987
 
129,548,400
142.3
2.63
0.53
1988
 
133,563,900
146.7
3.10
0.55
1989
 
136,177,800
149.6
1.96
0.55
1990
 
138,330,900
151.9
1.58
0.55
1991
 
137,612,800
151.1
-0.52
0.54
1992
 
138,166,100
151.7
0.40
0.54
1993
 
140,774,400
154.6
1.89
0.54
1994
 
144,196,600
158.4
2.43
0.55
1995
 
147,915,800
162.4
2.58
0.56
1996
 
151,056,200
165.9
2.12
0.56
1997
 
154,541,200
169.7
2.31
0.57
1998
 
158,481,200
174.1
2.55
0.57
1999
 
161,531,300
177.4
1.92
0.58
2000
 
165,370,800
181.6
2.38
0.59
2001
 
165,522,200
181.8
0.09
0.58
2002
 
165,095,100
181.3
-0.26
0.57
2003
 
165,921,500
182.2
0.50
0.57
2004
 
168,839,700
185.4
1.76
0.58
2005
 
172,338,400
189.3
2.07
0.58
2006
 
175,868,600
193.1
2.05
0.59
2007
 
179,543,700
197.2
2.09
0.60
2008
 
179,213,900
196.8
-0.18
0.59
2009
 
173,636,700
190.7
-3.11
0.57
2010
 
172,901,700
189.9
-0.42
0.56
2011
 
176,091,700
193.4
1.84
0.57
2012
 
178,979,700
196.6
1.64
0.57
2013
 
182,325,100
200.2
1.87
0.58
2014
 
186,233,800
204.5
2.14
0.58
2015
 
190,315,800
209.0
2.19
0.59
2016
 
193,371,900
212.4
1.61
0.60
2017
 
196,825,300
216.2
1.79
0.61
2018
 
200,746,000
220.5
1.99
0.61
Source: Calculations by the Pennsylvania Regional Economic Analysis Project (PA-REAP)
with data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
November 2019
REAP_PI_CA1400_1000_PN
 
   
Copyright © 2020. Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Analysis Project (PNREAP). All Rights Reserved.

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