Northampton County vs. Pennsylvania
Comparative Trends Analysis:
Total Employment Growth and Change, 1969-2017
Introduction
Northampton County:
2017 Jobs = 158,380
2017 Percent of State = 2.1%
Pennsylvania:
2017 Jobs = 7,685,285
2017 Percent of State = 3.9%
Employment numbers remain the most popular and frequently cited statistics used for tracking local area economic conditions and trends. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) employment estimates reported measure the number of full- and part-time wage and salary employees, plus the number of proprietors of unincorporated businesses. People holding more than one job are counted in the employment estimates for each job they hold. This means BEA employment estimates represent a job count, not a people count. Also, BEA employment is by place-of-work, rather than by place-of-residence. Jobs held by neighboring county residents who commute to Northampton County to work are included in the employment count for Northampton County.
Data Definition:
The BEA employment series for states and local areas comprises estimates of the number of jobs, full-time plus part-time, by place of work. Full-time and part-time jobs are counted at equal weight. Employees, sole proprietors, and active partners are included, but unpaid family workers and volunteers are not included. Proprietors employment consists of the number of sole proprietorships and the number of partners in partnerships. The description "by place of work" applies to the wage and salary portion of the series and, with relatively little error, to the entire series. The proprietors employment portion of the series, however, is more nearly by place of residence because, for nonfarm sole proprietorships, the estimates are based on IRS tax data that reflect the address from which the proprietor's individual tax return is filed, which is usually the proprietor's residence. The nonfarm partnership portion of the proprietors employment series reflects the tax-filing address of the partnership, which may be either the residence of one of the partners or the business address of the partnership. The employment estimates are designed to be consistent with the estimates of wage and salary disbursements and proprietors' income that are part of the personal income series. The employment estimates are based on the same sets of source data as the corresponding earnings estimates and are prepared with parallel methodologies. Two forms of proprietors' income-the income of limited partnerships and the income of tax-exempt cooperatives-have no corresponding employment estimates.
Total Employment, 1969-2017
Total Employment, 1969-2017
Figure 1.
Figure 1 tracks Northampton County's annual total employment for the period 1969-2017 to illustrate total employment patterns over time. During this 49-year period, Northampton County's total employment rose from 102,474 in 1969 to 158,380 in 2017, for a net gain of 55,906, or 54.6%.
Total Employment, 1969-2017
Total Employment, 1969-2017
Figure 2.
Figure 2 traces Pennsylvania's annual total employment for the period 1969-2017 to illustrate total employment patterns over time. During this 49-year period, Pennsylvania's total employment rose from 5,249,940 in 1969 to 7,685,285 in 2017, for a net gain of 2,435,345, or 46.4%.
Total Employment Indices (1969=100): 1969-2017
Total Employment Indices (1969=100): 1969-2017
Figure 3.
Figure 3 portrays Northampton County's total employment growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Pennsylvania, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's total employment in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the total employments in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in total employment growth between regions that may differ vastly in size.
Northampton County's overall total employment growth was 54.6% over 1969-2017 outpaced Pennsylvania's increase of 46.4%, and fell below the United States' increase of 115.4%.
Total Employment as a Percent of the Pennsylvania Total: 1969-2017
Total Employment as a Percent of the Pennsylvania Total: 1969-2017
Figure 4.
Another interesting and insightful way of comparing the total employment growth of Northampton County is to compare its individual percentage contributions to Pennsylvania's statewide total employment over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's total employment grew faster, or declined less, than Pennsylvania's total employment, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly.
In 1969, Northampton County's total employment totaled 2.0% of Pennsylvania's total employment, while in 2017 it totaled 2.1% thereby yielding a +0.1% share-shift.
   
 
Total Employment Share-Shift
2017 vs. 1969
 
Share-
Shift*
 
2017
vs.
1969
+0.11%
=
2.06%
-
1.95%
 
   
Northampton County Total Employment:
Annual Percent Change, 1970-2017
Northampton County Total Employment:
Annual Percent Change, 1970-2017
Figure 5.
Figure 5 shows the short-run pattern of Northampton County's total employment growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2017. The average annual percent change for the entire 48-year period is also traced on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average.
On average, Northampton County's total employment grew at an annual rate of 0.93% over 1970-2017. The county recorded its highest growth in 1973 (5.87%) and recorded its lowest growth in 1982 (-4.53%). In 2017, Northampton County's total employment grew by 2.22%
Northampton County Total Employment:
Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2017
Northampton County Total Employment:
Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2017
Figure 6.
Over the past four decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again depicts the annual percent change in Northampton County's total employment since 1970, but this time they are overlayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and 2010-2017.
During the 1970s, Northampton County's annual total employment growth rate averaged 0.18%. It averaged 0.20% during the 1980s, 0.36% in the 1990s, 2.12% during the 2000s, and 2.03% thus far this decade (2010 to 2017).
Total Employment Growth:
Average Annual Percent Change by Decade
Total Employment Growth:
Average Annual Percent Change by Decade
Figure 7.
Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Northampton County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Pennsylvania and the nation. As the chart reveals, Northampton County's average annual total employment growth posted below Pennsylvania's average during the 1970s (0.18% vs. 0.77%), lagged Pennsylvania's average throughout the 1980s (0.20% vs. 0.95%), recorded under Pennsylvania's average throughout the 1990s (0.36% vs. 0.85%), recorded above Pennsylvania's average throughout the 2000s (2.12% vs. 0.50%), and outperformed Pennsylvania's average over the 8 year period of the last decade, 2010-2017 (2.03% vs. 0.99%).
Finally, relative to nationwide total employment growth trends, Northampton County trailed the nation in the 1970s (0.18% vs. 2.21%), recorded underneath the nation in the 1980s (0.20% vs. 1.88%), trailed the nation throughout the 1990s (0.36% vs. 1.73%), outperformed the nation throughout the 2000s (2.12% vs. 0.74%), and led the nation over 2010-2017 (2.03% vs. 1.54%).
   
 
Total Employment Growth:
Average Annual Percent Change
 
 
 
0.93
0.18
0.20
0.36
2.12
2.03
2.22
 
0.81
0.77
0.95
0.85
0.50
0.99
1.16
 
1.62
2.21
1.88
1.73
0.74
1.54
1.43
 
   
Job Ratios (Employment/Population): 1969-2017
Job Ratios (Employment/Population): 1969-2017
Figure 8.
The job ratios shown in Figure 8 for Northampton County, Pennsylvania and the nation not only portray a number of important trends, they also serves as a thumbnail guide to evaluating an economy's capacity to generate enough jobs fast enough to absorb the increasing number of workers attendant to a growing population. The job ratio is the number of full-time and part-time jobs by place of work, divided by population.
Nationally, the job ratio rose from 0.45 to 0.60 between 1969 and 2017. Northampton County's job ratio registered 0.48 in 1969, and 0.52 in 2017. Underlying the rising job ratio over the past several decades have been the increases in the labor force participation rates, with the number and proportion of women in the labor market playing a leading role.
An assortment of other factors can contribute to regional differences in the job ratio. They include differences in the proportion of elderly and retirees who no longer work and participate in the labor force, differences in the number and proportion of part-time vs. full-time workers, differences in industry composition, and differences in age and sex distribution and degree of urbanization. Also, a disproportionate number of workers commuting to work outside a county tends to lower its local county job ratio, while a net inflow of workers commuting to work inside the county tends to augment its local county job ratio.
Avoid interpreting the job ratio as the fraction (or percent) of the local population employed. This interpretation should only apply to the "employment-population ratio" statistic compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) from the Current Population Survey (CPS).
Job Ratios (Employment/Population)
as a Percent of the U.S. Average:
1969-2017
Job Ratios (Employment/Population)
as a Percent of the U.S. Average:
1969-2017
Figure 9.
To highlight trends in a local job ratio relative to nationwide trends, Figure 9 tracks Northampton County's, Pennsylvania's job ratio as a percent of the national job ratio over 1969-2017.

Tip: To augment your analysis click on the column headers in the following table to rank and/or sort the data.

   
 
Northampton County:
Total Employment, 1969-2017
 
1969
 
102,474
100.0
N
1.95
0.48
106.31
1970
 
102,545
100.1
0.07
1.96
0.48
106.38
1971
 
98,669
96.3
-3.78
1.91
0.45
102.19
1972
 
100,041
97.6
1.39
1.91
0.46
101.31
1973
 
105,918
103.4
5.87
1.96
0.48
103.20
1974
 
107,606
105.0
1.59
1.99
0.48
103.26
1975
 
103,902
101.4
-3.44
1.96
0.47
101.44
1976
 
102,088
99.6
-1.75
1.91
0.46
98.07
1977
 
102,003
99.5
-0.08
1.88
0.46
95.33
1978
 
102,861
100.4
0.84
1.85
0.46
92.96
1979
 
103,942
101.4
1.05
1.84
0.46
91.87
1980
 
102,985
100.5
-0.92
1.83
0.46
90.98
1981
 
102,357
99.9
-0.61
1.83
0.45
90.38
1982
 
97,718
95.4
-4.53
1.79
0.43
87.35
1983
 
93,694
91.4
-4.12
1.72
0.41
82.98
1984
 
95,790
93.5
2.24
1.72
0.42
81.84
1985
 
96,995
94.7
1.26
1.71
0.42
81.00
1986
 
96,794
94.5
-0.21
1.68
0.42
79.21
1987
 
100,212
97.8
3.53
1.68
0.42
79.17
1988
 
103,009
100.5
2.79
1.68
0.42
77.79
1989
 
105,681
103.1
2.59
1.70
0.43
78.01
1990
 
107,228
104.6
1.46
1.70
0.43
78.06
1991
 
105,846
103.3
-1.29
1.70
0.42
77.69
1992
 
106,133
103.6
0.27
1.71
0.42
77.90
1993
 
106,555
104.0
0.40
1.70
0.42
77.11
1994
 
106,902
104.3
0.33
1.69
0.42
75.83
1995
 
109,222
106.6
2.17
1.70
0.42
75.84
1996
 
108,511
105.9
-0.65
1.68
0.42
74.18
1997
 
108,167
105.6
-0.32
1.64
0.41
72.76
1998
 
107,535
104.9
-0.58
1.62
0.41
70.88
1999
 
109,520
106.9
1.85
1.62
0.41
71.14
2000
 
113,281
110.5
3.43
1.64
0.42
72.19
2001
 
117,110
114.3
3.38
1.69
0.43
74.85
2002
 
118,764
115.9
1.41
1.72
0.44
75.85
2003
 
122,297
119.3
2.97
1.78
0.44
77.27
2004
 
124,799
121.8
2.05
1.80
0.44
76.92
2005
 
129,948
126.8
4.13
1.84
0.46
78.13
2006
 
133,289
130.1
2.57
1.86
0.46
78.08
2007
 
135,955
132.7
2.00
1.87
0.46
77.79
2008
 
136,612
133.3
0.48
1.88
0.46
78.55
2009
 
134,925
131.7
-1.23
1.90
0.45
80.36
2010
 
134,881
131.6
-0.03
1.89
0.45
80.99
2011
 
137,331
134.0
1.82
1.90
0.46
81.48
2012
 
141,325
137.9
2.91
1.94
0.47
82.87
2013
 
144,170
140.7
2.01
1.96
0.48
83.58
2014
 
147,088
143.5
2.02
1.98
0.49
83.92
2015
 
149,749
146.1
1.81
1.99
0.50
84.07
2016
 
154,942
151.2
3.47
2.04
0.51
85.88
2017
 
158,380
154.6
2.22
2.06
0.52
86.69
Source: Calculations by the Pennsylvania Regional Economic Analysis Project (PA-REAP)
with data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
November 2018
REAP_PI_CA1400_1000_PSN
 
   

Tip: To augment your analysis click on the column headers in the following table to rank and/or sort the data.

   
 
Pennsylvania:
Total Employment, 1969-2017
 
1969
 
5,249,940
100.0
N
5.77
0.45
98.85
1970
 
5,226,036
99.5
-0.46
5.73
0.44
98.79
1971
 
5,159,316
98.3
-1.28
5.63
0.43
98.04
1972
 
5,246,647
99.9
1.69
5.56
0.44
97.80
1973
 
5,401,982
102.9
2.96
5.49
0.45
97.60
1974
 
5,419,058
103.2
0.32
5.41
0.46
97.34
1975
 
5,302,386
101.0
-2.15
5.36
0.45
97.09
1976
 
5,353,339
102.0
0.96
5.27
0.45
96.44
1977
 
5,429,193
103.4
1.42
5.17
0.46
95.60
1978
 
5,561,889
105.9
2.44
5.07
0.47
94.92
1979
 
5,663,533
107.9
1.83
5.01
0.48
94.67
1980
 
5,624,462
107.1
-0.69
4.93
0.47
94.47
1981
 
5,583,974
106.4
-0.72
4.86
0.47
94.03
1982
 
5,473,792
104.3
-1.97
4.79
0.46
93.77
1983
 
5,432,690
103.5
-0.75
4.70
0.46
92.78
1984
 
5,577,004
106.2
2.66
4.63
0.47
92.36
1985
 
5,679,261
108.2
1.83
4.59
0.48
92.73
1986
 
5,772,102
109.9
1.63
4.57
0.49
93.19
1987
 
5,956,959
113.5
3.20
4.60
0.50
94.33
1988
 
6,119,812
116.6
2.73
4.58
0.52
94.57
1989
 
6,216,055
118.4
1.57
4.56
0.52
94.95
1990
 
6,292,542
119.9
1.23
4.55
0.53
95.39
1991
 
6,211,669
118.3
-1.29
4.51
0.52
95.30
1992
 
6,216,278
118.4
0.07
4.50
0.52
95.78
1993
 
6,256,367
119.2
0.64
4.44
0.52
95.31
1994
 
6,323,071
120.4
1.07
4.39
0.52
94.84
1995
 
6,422,943
122.3
1.58
4.34
0.53
94.79
1996
 
6,477,294
123.4
0.85
4.29
0.53
94.53
1997
 
6,584,830
125.4
1.66
4.26
0.54
95.01
1998
 
6,657,983
126.8
1.11
4.20
0.54
94.64
1999
 
6,764,343
128.8
1.60
4.19
0.55
95.28
2000
 
6,904,693
131.5
2.07
4.18
0.56
95.90
2001
 
6,915,464
131.7
0.16
4.18
0.56
96.80
2002
 
6,887,155
131.2
-0.41
4.17
0.56
97.30
2003
 
6,875,863
131.0
-0.16
4.14
0.56
97.15
2004
 
6,951,840
132.4
1.10
4.12
0.56
97.14
2005
 
7,053,674
134.4
1.46
4.09
0.57
97.15
2006
 
7,152,678
136.2
1.40
4.07
0.57
97.00
2007
 
7,265,045
138.4
1.57
4.05
0.58
97.02
2008
 
7,278,608
138.6
0.19
4.06
0.58
97.92
2009
 
7,101,557
135.3
-2.43
4.09
0.56
99.05
2010
 
7,119,776
135.6
0.26
4.12
0.56
100.21
2011
 
7,217,098
137.5
1.37
4.10
0.57
100.23
2012
 
7,284,519
138.8
0.93
4.07
0.57
100.09
2013
 
7,350,854
140.0
0.91
4.03
0.58
99.78
2014
 
7,437,412
141.7
1.18
3.99
0.58
99.48
2015
 
7,513,222
143.1
1.02
3.95
0.59
99.08
2016
 
7,597,336
144.7
1.12
3.93
0.59
99.37
2017
 
7,685,285
146.4
1.16
3.92
0.60
99.67
Source: Calculations by the Pennsylvania Regional Economic Analysis Project (PA-REAP)
with data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
November 2018
REAP_PI_CA1400_1000_PSN
 
   

Tip: To augment your analysis click on the column headers in the following table to rank and/or sort the data.

   
 
United States:
Total Employment, 1969-2017
 
1969
 
91,053,200
100.0
N
0.45
1970
 
91,277,600
100.2
0.25
0.45
1971
 
91,581,400
100.6
0.33
0.44
1972
 
94,312,200
103.6
2.98
0.45
1973
 
98,427,500
108.1
4.36
0.47
1974
 
100,111,800
109.9
1.71
0.47
1975
 
98,900,600
108.6
-1.21
0.46
1976
 
101,591,200
111.6
2.72
0.47
1977
 
105,042,200
115.4
3.40
0.48
1978
 
109,686,600
120.5
4.42
0.49
1979
 
113,147,100
124.3
3.15
0.50
1980
 
113,983,200
125.2
0.74
0.50
1981
 
114,914,000
126.2
0.82
0.50
1982
 
114,163,300
125.4
-0.65
0.49
1983
 
115,645,700
127.0
1.30
0.49
1984
 
120,528,100
132.4
4.22
0.51
1985
 
123,796,700
136.0
2.71
0.52
1986
 
126,232,300
138.6
1.97
0.53
1987
 
129,548,400
142.3
2.63
0.53
1988
 
133,563,900
146.7
3.10
0.55
1989
 
136,177,800
149.6
1.96
0.55
1990
 
138,330,900
151.9
1.58
0.55
1991
 
137,612,800
151.1
-0.52
0.54
1992
 
138,166,100
151.7
0.40
0.54
1993
 
140,774,400
154.6
1.89
0.54
1994
 
144,196,600
158.4
2.43
0.55
1995
 
147,915,800
162.4
2.58
0.56
1996
 
151,056,200
165.9
2.12
0.56
1997
 
154,541,200
169.7
2.31
0.57
1998
 
158,481,200
174.1
2.55
0.57
1999
 
161,531,300
177.4
1.92
0.58
2000
 
165,370,800
181.6
2.38
0.59
2001
 
165,522,200
181.8
0.09
0.58
2002
 
165,095,100
181.3
-0.26
0.57
2003
 
165,921,500
182.2
0.50
0.57
2004
 
168,839,700
185.4
1.76
0.58
2005
 
172,338,400
189.3
2.07
0.58
2006
 
175,868,600
193.1
2.05
0.59
2007
 
179,543,700
197.2
2.09
0.60
2008
 
179,213,900
196.8
-0.18
0.59
2009
 
173,636,700
190.7
-3.11
0.57
2010
 
172,901,700
189.9
-0.42
0.56
2011
 
176,091,700
193.4
1.84
0.57
2012
 
178,979,700
196.6
1.64
0.57
2013
 
182,325,100
200.2
1.87
0.58
2014
 
186,235,800
204.5
2.14
0.58
2015
 
190,317,800
209.0
2.19
0.59
2016
 
193,368,900
212.4
1.60
0.60
2017
 
196,132,200
215.4
1.43
0.60
Source: Calculations by the Pennsylvania Regional Economic Analysis Project (PA-REAP)
with data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
November 2018
REAP_PI_CA1400_1000_PN
 
   
Copyright © 2019. Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Analysis Project (PNREAP). All Rights Reserved.

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