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 Outline of Analysis
| Cumberland County vs. Pennsylvania Comparative Trends Analysis: Total Personal Income Growth and Change, 1969-2020 Introduction  Cumberland County: 2020 TPI = $15,759,690K 2020 Percent of State = 2.0% Pennsylvania: 2020 TPI = $788,725,185K 2020 Percent of U.S. = 4.0% The annual total personal incomes (TPI) estimates compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, (BEA) are among the most comprehensive, consistent, comparable and timely measures of economic activity available statewide and at the national levels. Personal income estimates are also the best available local level indicator of general purchasing power, and are therefore central to tracking and comparing county patterns of economic growth and change. The following graphs highlight trends in the pattern of growth and change in the total personal income of Cumberland County and Pennsylvania with comparison to the nation. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. The 2012 constant dollar (real) estimates of total personal income reported in the tables and portrayed graphically below are determined using the Implicit Price Deflator for Personal Consumption. Data Definition: Personal income is the income received by persons from participation in production, plus transfer receipts from government and business, plus government interest (which is treated like a transfer receipt). It is defined as the sum of wages and salaries, supplements to wages and salaries, proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, personal dividend income, personal interest income, and personal current transfer receipts, less contributions for government social insurance. Because the personal income of an area represents the income that is received by, or on behalf of, all the persons who live in that area, and because the estimates of some components of personal income (wages and salaries, supplements to wages and salaries, and contributions for government social insurance) are made on a place-of-work basis, state personal income includes an adjustment for residence. The residence adjustment represents the net flow of compensation (less contributions for government social insurance) of interstate commuters. Cumberland County Total Personal Income, 1970-2020 Current vs. Constant Dollars (Millions)  Figure 1. Figure 1 depicts Cumberland County's annual total personal income over 1970-2020 in current and constant (2012) dollars. Constant dollar measurements remove the effects of inflation. They allow for comparison of changes in the real purchasing power of Cumberland County over time. When measured in current dollars, Cumberland County's total personal income increased 2,146.6%, from $701M in 1970 to $15,760M in 2020. When measured in constant 2012 dollars to adjust for inflation, it advanced 322.4%, from $3,355M in 1970 to $14,169M in 2020. Real Total Personal Income, 1969-2020 (Millions)  Figure 2. Figure 2 traces Cumberland County's and Pennsylvania's annual real total personal income for the period 1969-2020 to illustrate real total personal income patterns over time. During this 52-year period, Cumberland County's real total personal income rose from $3,178M in 1969 to $14,169M in 2020, for a net gain of $10,991M, or 345.9%. In comparison, Pennsylvania's real total personal income advanced from $227,003M in 1969 to $709,126M in 2020, for a net advance of $482,123M, or 212.4%. Real Total Personal Income Indices (1969=100): 1969-2020  Figure 3. Figure 3 shows Cumberland County's real total personal income growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Pennsylvania, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's real total personal income in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the real total personal incomes in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in real total personal income growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. Cumberland County's overall real total personal income growth was 345.9% over 1969-2020 outpaced Pennsylvania's increase of 212.4%, and outpaced the United States' increase of 345.1%. Total Personal Income as a Percent of the Pennsylvania Total: 1969-2020  Figure 4. Another interesting and insightful way of contrasting the total personal income growth of Cumberland County is to trace its individual percentage contributions to Pennsylvania's statewide total personal income over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's total personal income grew faster, or declined less, than Pennsylvania's total personal income, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 1969, Cumberland County's total personal income totaled 1.4% of Pennsylvania's total personal income, while in 2020 it totaled 2.0% thereby yielding a +0.6% share-shift.
Cumberland County Real Total Personal Income: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2020  Figure 5. Figure 5 highlights the short-run pattern of Cumberland County's real total personal income growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2020. The average annual percent change for the entire 51-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, Cumberland County's real total personal income grew at an annual rate of 2.99% over 1970-2020. The county posted its highest growth in 1972 (7.62%) and posted its lowest growth in 2009 (-1.07%). In 2020, Cumberland County's real total personal income grew by 7.46% Cumberland County Real Total Personal Income: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2020  Figure 6. Over the past five decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again illustrates the annual percent change in Cumberland County's real total personal income since 1970, but this time they are displayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and 2020. During the 1970s, Cumberland County's annual real total personal income growth rate averaged 3.43%. It averaged 4.02% throughout the 1980s, 2.78% in the 1990s, 1.82% throughout the 2000s, 2.46% throughout the 2010s, and 7.46% in 2020. Real Total Personal Income Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade  Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Cumberland County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Pennsylvania and the nation. As the chart reveals, Cumberland County's average annual real total personal income growth recorded above Pennsylvania's average throughout the 1970s (3.43% vs. 2.58%), topped Pennsylvania's average during the 1980s (4.02% vs. 2.21%), outgained Pennsylvania's average in the 1990s (2.78% vs. 2.37%), surpassed Pennsylvania's average throughout the 2000s (1.82% vs. 1.77%), and led Pennsylvania's average over the 10 year period of the last decade, 2010-2019 (2.46% vs. 2.09%). In 2020, Cumberland County's growth has surpassed Pennsylvania's average (7.46% vs. 5.74%). Finally, relative to nationwide real total personal income growth trends, Cumberland County trailed the nation throughout the 1970s (3.43% vs. 3.50%), outgained the nation in the 1980s (4.02% vs. 3.17%), posted below the nation during the 1990s (2.78% vs. 3.30%), fell under the nation in the 2000s (1.82% vs. 2.04%), and fell under the nation over 2010-2019 (2.46% vs. 2.70%). In 2020, growth for Cumberland County has outperformed the national average (7.46% vs. 5.30%).
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