Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Finance and Insurance Earnings Growth
Across Pennsylvania Counties
Real* Finance and Insurance
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2008-2017 and 2017
Real* Finance and Insurance
Earnings Growth
Pennsylvania:
2008-2017 = 3.78%
2017 = 6.37%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of real finance and insurance earnings growth across all of Pennsylvania's 67 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Pennsylvania Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the real finance and insurance earnings growth of Pennsylvania's 67 counties over the latest available year (2017) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2008-2017). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Real* Finance and Insurance
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2008-2017 and 2017
Real* Finance and Insurance
Earnings Growth
Pennsylvania:
2008-2017 = 3.78%
2017 = 6.37%
This figure displays the 67 counties of Pennsylvania as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual real finance and insurance earnings growth rate over the long-term period (2008-2017), and the horizontal axis representing the real finance and insurance earnings growth rate for the near-term (2017).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term real finance and insurance earnings growth exceeded the statewide average of 3.78%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 3.78% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual real finance and insurance earnings growth rate trailed the statewide average (3.78%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 23 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2008-2017, while 41 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 15 counties whose most recent (2017) real finance and insurance earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (6.37%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 49 counties whose real finance and insurance earnings growth over 2017 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 67 counties corresponding with their long-term (2008-2017) and near-term (2017) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 3.78% over 2008-2017 and 6.37% over 2017:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real finance and insurance earnings growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (3.78%) and near-term (6.37%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real finance and insurance earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (3.78%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Pennsylvania average (6.37%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real finance and insurance earnings growth rate fell below the statewide average (3.78%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (6.37%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real finance and insurance earnings growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (3.78%) and near-term (6.37%).
   
 
Summary of Pennsylvania's 67 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(6.37%)
Above
(6.37%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(3.78%)
15
8
23
Below
(3.78%)
34
7
41
 
49
15
64
 
   
Leading Counties
2017 vs. 2008-2017 Averages
Leading Counties
Pennsylvania:
2008-2017 = 3.78%
2017 = 6.37%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Pennsylvania counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Pennsylvania's average annual real finance and insurance earnings growth both long-term (2008-2017 = 3.78%) as well as near-term (2017 = 6.37%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real finance and insurance earnings growth rate over 2008-2017.
Of Pennsylvania's 67 counties, just 8 (12%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2017 vs. 2008-2017 Averages
Slipping Counties
Pennsylvania:
2008-2017 = 3.78%
2017 = 6.37%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 15 Pennsylvania counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real finance and insurance earnings growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2008-2017 = 3.78%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2017 = 6.37%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual real finance and insurance earnings growth rate over 2008-2017.
Observe that 15 (22%) of Pennsylvania's 67 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2017 vs. 2008-2017 Averages
Gaining Counties
Pennsylvania:
2008-2017 = 3.78%
2017 = 6.37%
This figure shows the distribution of the 7 Pennsylvania counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real finance and insurance earnings growth rate posted below the average statewide (2008-2017 = 3.78%), while they outpaced Pennsylvania's average near-term (2017 = 6.37%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual real finance and insurance earnings growth rate over 2008-2017.
Of Pennsylvania's 67 counties, only 10% (7) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2017 vs. 2008-2017 Averages
Lagging Counties
Pennsylvania:
2008-2017 = 3.78%
2017 = 6.37%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 34 Pennsylvania counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual real finance and insurance earnings growth both long-term (2008-2017 = 3.78%) as well as near-term (2017 = 6.37%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real finance and insurance earnings growth rate over 2008-2017.
51% of Pennsylvania's counties, 34 of 67, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
Pennsylvania
Real* Finance and Insurance Earnings Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2008-2017
 
2017
 
 
Leading Counties
 
22
3.85
 
6
8.89
5,501,210
 
3
8.18
 
12
7.04
29,243
 
18
5.25
 
10
7.37
40,732
 
10
6.10
 
8
7.97
1,885,677
 
13
5.82
 
13
6.84
14,129
 
1
63.22
 
7
8.37
99,331
 
5
6.50
 
11
7.30
19,938
 
11
6.07
 
9
7.43
61,915
Slipping Counties
 
7
6.43
 
29
4.23
25,160
 
4
7.69
 
54
-0.25
188,702
 
23
3.84
 
40
2.94
89,460
 
9
6.35
 
33
3.56
96,439
 
12
5.97
 
21
5.57
140,986
 
2
29.27
 
22
5.01
2,105,779
 
21
4.04
 
37
3.17
11,535
 
15
5.56
 
18
6.04
4,863
 
14
5.60
 
55
-1.48
17,349
 
6
6.44
 
48
1.82
52,442
 
19
5.24
 
19
5.86
14,605
 
8
6.43
 
58
-2.39
28,788
 
17
5.29
 
41
2.86
27,992
 
16
5.42
 
56
-1.68
188,349
 
20
5.13
 
36
3.35
12,298
Gaining Counties
 
46
2.62
 
1
36.93
415,054
 
29
3.32
 
14
6.69
40,730
 
24
3.73
 
4
12.34
991,635
 
32
3.16
 
5
10.75
3,188,984
 
42
2.76
 
2
14.56
4,878
 
41
2.78
 
3
12.66
65,037
 
31
3.22
 
15
6.55
447,686
Lagging Counties
 
34
3.10
 
35
3.49
50,254
 
56
1.21
 
62
-8.66
71,994
 
61
0.16
 
30
4.13
83,619
 
57
1.19
 
61
-3.39
156,092
 
28
3.45
 
52
0.51
23,020
 
35
3.00
 
44
2.42
121,354
 
51
1.87
 
20
5.82
23,048
 
37
2.94
 
45
2.37
48,201
 
59
0.31
 
51
0.88
12,266
 
26
3.64
 
47
1.89
41,421
 
55
1.24
 
57
-2.33
730,482
 
47
2.45
 
31
3.90
1,020,858
 
25
3.66
 
34
3.53
17,643
 
27
3.49
 
49
1.42
525,593
 
50
2.02
 
60
-2.57
38,697
 
48
2.43
 
65
-16.07
18,192
 
43
2.73
 
43
2.56
30,654
 
52
1.57
 
38
3.10
14,845
 
38
2.85
 
16
6.28
412,093
 
44
2.73
 
53
0.02
663,130
 
63
-0.15
 
64
-14.52
79,122
 
54
1.43
 
59
-2.44
533,573
 
36
2.95
 
26
4.58
108,239
 
58
0.85
 
46
1.91
16,176
 
33
3.16
 
25
4.76
25,858
 
62
0.01
 
32
3.71
67,074
 
40
2.83
 
17
6.26
448,246
 
45
2.64
 
39
3.04
41,546
 
49
2.17
 
23
5.00
5,112,933
 
60
0.26
 
42
2.81
62,782
 
64
-0.64
 
50
1.02
27,620
 
39
2.84
 
27
4.56
38,911
 
30
3.30
 
24
4.95
258,424
 
53
1.49
 
28
4.50
329,000
Undefined/Suppressed Counties
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
63
-9.36
1,520
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3.78
 
6.37
27,066,834
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2.40
 
6.90
835,755,000
November 2018
REAP_PI_CA1600N_611000_LSGL
 
   
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