Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Employment Growth
Across Pennsylvania Counties
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Employment Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2007-2016 and 2016
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Employment Growth
Pennsylvania:
2007-2016 = 2.54%
2016 = 3.56%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of real estate and rental and leasing employment growth across all of Pennsylvania's 67 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Pennsylvania Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the real estate and rental and leasing employment growth of Pennsylvania's 67 counties over the latest available year (2016) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2007-2016). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Employment Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2007-2016 and 2016
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Employment Growth
Pennsylvania:
2007-2016 = 2.54%
2016 = 3.56%
This figure displays the 67 counties of Pennsylvania as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual real estate and rental and leasing employment growth rate over the long-term period (2007-2016), and the horizontal axis representing the real estate and rental and leasing employment growth rate for the near-term (2016).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term real estate and rental and leasing employment growth exceeded the statewide average of 2.54%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 2.54% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual real estate and rental and leasing employment growth rate trailed the statewide average (2.54%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 31 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2007-2016, while 32 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 37 counties whose most recent (2016) real estate and rental and leasing employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (3.56%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 26 counties whose real estate and rental and leasing employment growth over 2016 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 67 counties corresponding with their long-term (2007-2016) and near-term (2016) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 2.54% over 2007-2016 and 3.56% over 2016:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real estate and rental and leasing employment growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (2.54%) and near-term (3.56%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real estate and rental and leasing employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (2.54%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Pennsylvania average (3.56%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real estate and rental and leasing employment growth rate fell below the statewide average (2.54%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (3.56%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real estate and rental and leasing employment growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (2.54%) and near-term (3.56%).
   
 
Summary of Pennsylvania's 67 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(3.56%)
Above
(3.56%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(2.54%)
15
16
31
Below
(2.54%)
11
21
32
 
26
37
63
 
   
Leading Counties
2016 vs. 2007-2016 Averages
Leading Counties
Pennsylvania:
2007-2016 = 2.54%
2016 = 3.56%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Pennsylvania counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Pennsylvania's average annual real estate and rental and leasing employment growth both long-term (2007-2016 = 2.54%) as well as near-term (2016 = 3.56%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real estate and rental and leasing employment growth rate over 2007-2016.
Of Pennsylvania's 67 counties, 16 (24%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2016 vs. 2007-2016 Averages
Slipping Counties
Pennsylvania:
2007-2016 = 2.54%
2016 = 3.56%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 15 Pennsylvania counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real estate and rental and leasing employment growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2007-2016 = 2.54%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2016 = 3.56%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual real estate and rental and leasing employment growth rate over 2007-2016.
Observe that 15 (22%) of Pennsylvania's 67 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2016 vs. 2007-2016 Averages
Gaining Counties
Pennsylvania:
2007-2016 = 2.54%
2016 = 3.56%
This figure shows the distribution of the 21 Pennsylvania counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real estate and rental and leasing employment growth rate posted below the average statewide (2007-2016 = 2.54%), while they outpaced Pennsylvania's average near-term (2016 = 3.56%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual real estate and rental and leasing employment growth rate over 2007-2016.
Of Pennsylvania's 67 counties, 31% (21) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2016 vs. 2007-2016 Averages
Lagging Counties
Pennsylvania:
2007-2016 = 2.54%
2016 = 3.56%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 11 Pennsylvania counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual real estate and rental and leasing employment growth both long-term (2007-2016 = 2.54%) as well as near-term (2016 = 3.56%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real estate and rental and leasing employment growth rate over 2007-2016.
16% of Pennsylvania's counties, 11 of 67, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
Pennsylvania
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Employment Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2007-2016
 
2016
 
 
Leading Counties
 
16
3.45
 
7
5.16
632
 
8
4.97
 
2
6.47
2,799
 
12
3.84
 
16
4.24
4,372
 
25
2.94
 
10
4.71
622
 
17
3.41
 
32
3.74
1,025
 
21
3.14
 
12
4.35
456
 
15
3.62
 
9
5.03
355
 
30
2.72
 
23
4.00
4,107
 
11
4.19
 
34
3.71
2,351
 
22
3.12
 
30
3.82
8,826
 
5
5.76
 
17
4.22
2,542
 
31
2.57
 
24
3.94
40,232
 
23
3.10
 
13
4.34
31,701
 
18
3.38
 
5
5.67
615
 
3
7.49
 
21
4.13
6,121
 
6
5.69
 
6
5.52
459
Slipping Counties
 
7
5.16
 
63
-10.14
682
 
20
3.17
 
61
-1.29
2,525
 
2
8.24
 
62
-6.07
1,006
 
13
3.79
 
52
2.24
4,106
 
26
2.93
 
59
1.05
5,882
 
14
3.66
 
55
1.52
335
 
24
3.09
 
53
2.11
1,791
 
4
6.52
 
64
-12.43
472
 
28
2.92
 
56
1.39
511
 
19
3.22
 
39
3.41
13,534
 
27
2.93
 
46
3.12
1,520
 
29
2.78
 
54
1.83
6,022
 
1
8.38
 
58
1.22
744
 
10
4.19
 
60
0.17
575
 
9
4.51
 
44
3.16
686
Gaining Counties
 
52
1.24
 
28
3.87
1,478
 
47
1.91
 
19
4.20
20,925
 
54
1.18
 
1
7.32
1,011
 
33
2.52
 
33
3.72
19,745
 
51
1.34
 
3
6.07
454
 
56
1.04
 
22
4.02
984
 
49
1.75
 
36
3.61
6,574
 
36
2.50
 
31
3.75
15,859
 
59
0.86
 
26
3.93
4,525
 
43
2.21
 
29
3.84
2,571
 
53
1.20
 
18
4.21
371
 
41
2.32
 
4
5.85
217
 
42
2.24
 
35
3.67
6,129
 
32
2.54
 
37
3.61
1,120
 
46
1.95
 
8
5.13
492
 
63
-3.45
 
11
4.66
1,101
 
34
2.52
 
14
4.32
1,906
 
55
1.17
 
38
3.60
575
 
57
1.03
 
27
3.88
348
 
37
2.50
 
25
3.94
977
 
39
2.35
 
20
4.16
9,367
Lagging Counties
 
48
1.81
 
42
3.36
35,602
 
38
2.44
 
43
3.21
7,999
 
58
1.01
 
49
2.50
1,678
 
50
1.62
 
45
3.15
1,080
 
61
-0.16
 
51
2.26
136
 
35
2.50
 
50
2.43
1,011
 
60
0.62
 
57
1.38
367
 
44
2.16
 
48
2.52
1,547
 
62
-0.86
 
40
3.40
3,254
 
45
2.09
 
47
3.09
934
 
40
2.33
 
41
3.39
6,474
Undefined/Suppressed Counties
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
15
4.29
170
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2.54
 
3.56
304,812
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1.89
 
3.61
8,983,500
November 2017
REAP_PI_CA1500N_511100_LSGL
 
   
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