Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing State Government Employment Growth
Across Pennsylvania Counties
State Government
Employment Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
State Government
Employment Growth
Pennsylvania:
2010-2022 = -0.59%
2022 = -0.81%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of state government employment growth across all of Pennsylvania's 67 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Pennsylvania Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the state government employment growth of Pennsylvania's 67 counties over the latest available year (2022) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2022). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
State Government
Employment Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
State Government
Employment Growth
Pennsylvania:
2010-2022 = -0.59%
2022 = -0.81%
This figure displays the 67 counties of Pennsylvania as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual state government employment growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2022), and the horizontal axis representing the state government employment growth rate for the near-term (2022).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term state government employment growth exceeded the statewide average of -0.59%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at -0.59% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual state government employment growth rate trailed the statewide average (-0.59%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 24 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2022, while 32 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 26 counties whose most recent (2022) state government employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (-0.81%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 30 counties whose state government employment growth over 2022 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 67 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2022) and near-term (2022) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of -0.59% over 2010-2022 and -0.81% over 2022:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual state government employment growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (-0.59%) and near-term (-0.81%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual state government employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (-0.59%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Pennsylvania average (-0.81%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual state government employment growth rate fell below the statewide average (-0.59%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (-0.81%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual state government employment growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (-0.59%) and near-term (-0.81%).
   
 
Summary of Pennsylvania's 67 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(-0.81%)
Above
(-0.81%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(-0.59%)
10
14
24
Below
(-0.59%)
20
12
32
 
30
26
56
 
   
Leading Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
Pennsylvania:
2010-2022 = -0.59%
2022 = -0.81%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Pennsylvania counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Pennsylvania's average annual state government employment growth both long-term (2010-2022 = -0.59%) as well as near-term (2022 = -0.81%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual state government employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Pennsylvania's 67 counties, 14 (21%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Slipping Counties
Pennsylvania:
2010-2022 = -0.59%
2022 = -0.81%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 10 Pennsylvania counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual state government employment growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2022 = -0.59%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2022 = -0.81%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual state government employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
Only 10 (15%) of Pennsylvania's 67 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Gaining Counties
white dot
Pennsylvania:
2010-2022 = -0.59%
2022 = -0.81%
This figure shows the distribution of the 12 Pennsylvania counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual state government employment growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2022 = -0.59%), while they outpaced Pennsylvania's average near-term (2022 = -0.81%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual state government employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Pennsylvania's 67 counties, 18% (12) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
Pennsylvania:
2010-2022 = -0.59%
2022 = -0.81%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 20 Pennsylvania counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual state government employment growth both long-term (2010-2022 = -0.59%) as well as near-term (2022 = -0.81%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual state government employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
30% of Pennsylvania's counties, 20 of 67, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
Pennsylvania
State Government Employment Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2022
 
2022
 
 
Leading Counties
 
11
-0.14
 
29
-0.80
2,964
 
21
-0.35
 
25
-0.32
2,803
 
12
-0.15
 
13
0.67
898
 
23
-0.53
 
20
0.00
150
 
5
0.19
 
18
0.19
1,580
 
3
0.56
 
3
2.82
728
 
15
-0.17
 
19
0.17
1,153
 
1
1.16
 
1
17.57
174
 
9
-0.04
 
16
0.44
5,499
 
16
-0.23
 
4
2.34
482
 
20
-0.34
 
7
2.03
201
 
22
-0.43
 
20
0.00
126
 
6
0.06
 
10
1.72
944
 
8
-0.03
 
2
3.24
1,274
Slipping Counties
 
19
-0.33
 
35
-1.12
264
 
13
-0.16
 
37
-1.63
1,869
 
17
-0.25
 
44
-2.88
1,857
 
7
0.00
 
41
-2.62
929
 
4
0.20
 
30
-0.81
3,659
 
14
-0.16
 
53
-6.87
651
 
10
-0.09
 
43
-2.85
853
 
24
-0.54
 
34
-1.11
11,196
 
18
-0.30
 
33
-1.08
1,833
 
2
0.60
 
40
-2.57
1,627
Gaining Counties
 
33
-0.89
 
8
1.92
796
 
52
-2.39
 
26
-0.39
1,784
 
31
-0.85
 
17
0.33
27,133
 
28
-0.74
 
27
-0.48
2,695
 
27
-0.66
 
14
0.62
162
 
32
-0.86
 
24
-0.31
2,606
 
56
-6.04
 
6
2.18
328
 
49
-1.96
 
15
0.55
1,658
 
37
-1.13
 
28
-0.79
4,278
 
26
-0.62
 
5
2.29
179
 
38
-1.32
 
20
0.00
2,076
 
39
-1.42
 
12
0.68
589
Lagging Counties
 
47
-1.71
 
46
-3.44
4,355
 
35
-1.00
 
42
-2.74
284
 
30
-0.80
 
32
-0.93
426
 
40
-1.46
 
39
-2.32
4,462
 
48
-1.72
 
58
-8.51
1,484
 
51
-2.16
 
57
-7.66
1,218
 
34
-0.94
 
54
-6.99
2,407
 
43
-1.57
 
51
-5.19
3,913
 
25
-0.61
 
45
-3.04
4,971
 
50
-2.12
 
55
-7.01
1,034
 
45
-1.67
 
52
-6.15
3,690
 
46
-1.67
 
36
-1.59
309
 
44
-1.64
 
48
-3.64
3,226
 
42
-1.57
 
56
-7.57
354
 
53
-2.52
 
59
-9.32
778
 
36
-1.05
 
47
-3.47
195
 
54
-2.59
 
49
-4.03
999
 
55
-2.94
 
60
-12.85
1,092
 
41
-1.51
 
50
-4.12
2,209
 
29
-0.78
 
31
-0.83
2,755
Undefined/Suppressed Counties
 
U
U
 
38
-1.95
201
 
U
U
 
S
S
1,292
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
325
 
U
U
 
9
1.81
42,375
 
U
U
 
S
S
5,768
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
122
 
U
U
 
S
S
201
 
U
U
 
20
0.00
141
 
U
U
 
11
0.78
129
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
-0.59
 
-0.81
179,612
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
-0.09
 
-0.04
5,279,000
November 2023
REAP_PI_CA1500N_520310_LSGL
 
   
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